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Determining The Core Odds December 31, 2002
The "core odds" of the game assume that the player will follow the house rules for hitting his hands. In this example, to stop taking hits when his hand reaches a total of seventeen or greater, and no sooner. In this case, all things seem to be equal, and the player should have a 50% chance of winning or losing each hand.
This would be true only if the player's wager was returned the dealer busts his handbut one rule of the game that is never varied is that a player who busts loses his wager, even if the dealer busts afterward.
With this in mind, all the totals for hands remain equalso a player's 20 will beat a dealer's 19 equally as often as a dealer's 20 beats a player's 19, and the dealer will bust as often as the player while the other stands on a viable hand.
The only remaining difference is that the dealer will bust of the instances in which the player bustswhich is 33.15% likely to happen in 33.15% of the time, for a core odds value of 10.99% of all hands played.
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