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Many Blackjack players don't understand that a player -- even a card-counter -- will lose more hands than the dealer, but we make our money by winning more bets than the dealer. For example, the dealer pays us 1.5 to 1 when we have a "natural", but we only pay our original bet when the dealer has one. Also, the dealer cannot split pairs or double, so those plays are very important to winning at the game. Receiving a pair is a relatively rare event, but opportunities to double come up fairly often, so it's important to make the right play.

The strategy for doubling with 11 is simple, but I see it misplayed all the time, particularly against a dealer's up card of 10 (or face). A similar situation occurs when the dealer shows an Ace and doesn't have a natural, so let's examine these situations.

A great majority of players are afraid to double their 11 against a dealer's 10, probably because they think the dealer has a 20, but A) that won't always be the case, and B) there will be plenty of times you'll get a 10 and beat that dealer anyway. The statistics here are significant. Just hitting an 11 against a dealer's 10 will return about 11.7% of all the money you bet in that situation. That means that your "expectation" is to win, on average, 11.7% of your bet. While you will win or lose say, $10 on that hand, in the long run, the result of all situations where you double 11 against a 10 will show a profit of 11.7% of the monies bet.

By doubling you are, admittedly, increasing your risk since you must put another bet out there, so you will win or lose twice as much. This has an effect of increasing your bankroll fluctuations, but it's the cost you pay for the chance to make more money. By doubling, you will win on fewer hands (since you can't draw another card, like you can when you just hit), but the total return is higher.

Since you should always double for an amount equal to your original bet, you'll now win less often, but on more money. For doubling 11 against a 10, the expectation is to win about 17.6% of the original bet ( 8.8% on the hand, but with two bets out there). In the course of play of 10,000 hands of Blackjack, the dealer will have an up card of 10 an average 4/13 of the time, or 30%. (No, that doesn't happen only to you!)

Of those times, you will have an 11 about one time in twenty. So, in the course of that 10,000 hands, a chance to double will appear (to be more accurate) about 136 times. At an average bet of $10, the total "action" in those situations will be $1360. By hitting, your expectation is $1360 X .117 = $159. By doubling, your expectation is $1360 X .176 = $239. That's an $80 difference.

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